Introduction

1.1 IFATCA is developing its Vision for 2035 – however there is much that needs to be addressed in dealing with current problems and with incremental improvements in working towards that Vision.

1.2 This working paper is a brief update of my current thinking on the subject of Future ATM.

Discussion

2.1 Future ATM should be considered as starting now.

2.2 Given the high profile regional ATM improvement programs of SESAR (in Europe) and NextGen (in USA) it could be thought that NextGen and SESAR are defining the future of ATM.

2.3 NextGen and SESAR programs will have considerable influence however IFATCA must take a global view and ensure that the “rest of the world” ATM needs are also properly addressed.

2.4 Sometimes NextGen and SESAR are jointly referred to as NEXSUS – for there is much commonality of objectives – but it appears that there are and will continue to be differences in the systems and their implementations – if only that the USA and Europe have different environments and therefore different implementation needs. This rationale however should not be used as an excuse for unnecessary differences.

2.5 It is also assumed that somehow a down-scaled NextGen or SESAR system will meet the needs of the rest of the global ATM community – but such an assumption has not been validated and will most probably prove wrong.

2.6 How then can we achieve the harmonisation and interoperability that is necessary for the safety and efficient needs of the ATM system as it recovers and grows?

2.7 One of the most promising approaches that I have seen is ICAO’s analysis of the Operational Improvements of NextGen and SESAR. Perhaps this style of analysis gives the opportunity for considering how the Operational Improvements could be considered on a global scale?

2.8 However even more fundamental than the Operational Improvements is a correct understanding of what Air Traffic Control is today and what are the essential elements of ATC that provide the necessary checks and balances for safe and efficient operations. Unfortunately this seems to be poorly understood and IFATCA has a continuing and important role to explain what ATC (or ATM) is at the operational level.

2.9 The next important step is to be aware that aviation is only part of a larger system – so it cannot determine alone its own future. This means that there needs to be a clear understanding of what is happening in the wider world, of which financial and environmental issues at the moment are having considerable influence. Also changing are the expectations and working styles of those that will be employed as aviation professionals.

2.10 The next step before considering Operational Improvements is to correctly validate assumptions – or perhaps more correctly stated break pre-conceived notions of the way things work unless it is demonstrated to be true. The approach to Performance Based Navigation (PBN) is such a example. On the Aerodrome today the holding points for a CAT 3 approach are more widely spaced from the runway than a CAT 1 approach – but under PBN shouldn’t a higher precision navigation allow the holding points to be closer to the runway? Today’s practice is based on other issues such as protection of the ILS signal but with alternative means of CAT 3 being developed perhaps we should not assume it will always be so.

2.11 So even though an Operational Improvement analysis might provide a way forward, it should not be done prematurely – that is before some more fundamental steps are taken.

2.12 IFATCA’s Statement of the Future of Global ATM is now more than 3 years old, but hopefully it is still useful as a basis of further work. Likewise IFATCA Vision 2035 is an important coordination tool with other international organisations as to where we are likely to be going and helping us set and work on common objectives.

2.13 Consideration is being given to (again) forming an IFATCA global team on Future ATM. However rather than only looking into the far future (2035), this team will need to also consider the more immediate issues of the future starting now. It is also hoped that the implementation by IFATCA of on-line information and tools will permit a much greater visibility and participation of IFATCA members in this work.